Brief report on the upcoming Vijaypur by-election in Madhya Pradesh

By-elections in two assembly constituencies of Madhya Pradesh have been announced to be held on November 13. No doubt, BJP is in power in the state, but in the context of BJP, it is being said that the path to Panghat is very difficult here in the by-election of Vijaypur assembly of Gwalior Chambal region. However, even after the election date has been announced, Congress has not yet revealed its cards regarding the candidate. But it has been declared that the current Forest Minister Ramniwas Rawat, who has come from Congress to BJP, will be the BJP candidate in Vijaypur.

There is a lot of hustle and bustle in the BJP and the government regarding the assembly by-elections of Vijaypur and Budhni in Madhya Pradesh. And at present, the by-elections of Budhni and Vijaypur are scheduled to be held on November 13. Ramniwas Rawat, who was imported from Congress to BJP and was immediately given the post of Forest Minister, has been declared the candidate from BJP from Vijaypur seat of Gwalior Chambal. Earlier, he was a Congress MLA from this seat and he resigned from this seat after joining BJP. He had started surveying the area two months ago with former MLA and election co-incharge Narendra Birathre. But Congress has not yet revealed its cards regarding who will be its candidate.

If we look at the political history of Vijaypur, Ramniwas has been an MLA six times and it was late Madhav Scindia who brought him into politics. He was not only a confidant of late Madhav Scindia but also enjoyed the pleasure of being a Panchayat Minister due to his grace. Ramniwas was a big and powerful leader of this area but it is not that he had influence in the entire Chambal. He has also lost the election once to Sitaram Adivasi of BJP. In the 2018 assembly elections, Sitaram Adivasi of BJP defeated former minister Ramniwas Rawat. But in the 2023 elections, BJP could not understand the mood of the public and gave ticket to old leader Babulal Mewara. As a result, Babulal lost the election and Congress’s Ramniwas Rawat won once again. The surprising thing in this election is that Ramniwas got 69646 votes while BJP’s Babulal got 51589 votes. While independent tribal leader Mukesh Malhotra made a strong mark by getting 44128 votes, BSP got 34346 votes. That is, if the votes of Mukesh Malhotra and BSP are added, then the total votes are more than 78000 which is more than the total votes of both BJP and Congress. And the secret of the victory of this by-election is hidden in the equation of these two votes.

Actually this was BJP’s traditional seat earlier and this myth was broken by Ramniwas Rawat. The special thing is that in this area, there are a total of 17 to 18 thousand voters of Ramniwas’s Rawat community. Whereas there are more than 35000 OBC and more than 55000 tribal voters. That is, the tribal voters are the destiny makers here and they decide the direction of victory. BJP started laying its electoral chessboard from the time Ramniwas joined BJP and at present it is far ahead of Congress and this is true. BJP’s candidate Ramniwas Rawat has been declared and voting is also on 13 November but Congress candidate has not been declared yet. There was a discussion that Congress is betting on BJP’s tribal leader and former MLA Sitaram but recently BJP blunted the edge of this attack of Congress by giving him the status of Minister of State. Sources claim that all preparations of BJP upto booth level have been completed and election in-charge Narendra Birathre along with candidate Ramniwas was busy in fielding and gathering in the area since two months ago.

But it is not that challenges have been dismissed for BJP in Vijaypur. The biggest problem is tribal leader Mukesh Malhotra who contested this election as an independent candidate and proved his mettle by getting more than 44000 votes. God forbid if Congress bets on him then it will be a cause of big trouble for BJP. Because around 55000 tribal voters will obviously lean towards Malhotra who has the power to reverse the result. If Rajput, Gurjar and Dalit voters join hands with these votes, then BJP’s problems will increase because these votes can prove to be a game changer. Here BJP is facing another problem and that is that some people of Rawat community have had a dispute with other communities and Congress will try its best to make this an issue. That is, Congress will try its best to take this election on an anti-Rawat pitch. The question is what counter BJP has. Here, Rajputs are a very influential class in the area, which is somewhere under the influence of Congress candidate Neetu Sikarwar in the Lok Sabha elections and Neetu Sikarwar considers Rawat to be the biggest reason for her defeat in the Lok Sabha and is in no mood to spare him. The inclination of Rajputs will also be a big factor in upsetting the equations. But the biggest problem of Congress is that after Ramniwas joined BJP, the entire organization of Vijaypur was ruined. Congress neither has an organization nor a network in the area and it does not work. It is only and only trying to play the election in the name of tribals. The question is that the tribals are also divided into three camps of Sitaram, Mukesh Malhotra and Turrasanpal Shiva. There is also a public discussion that a group of tribals which is around 5000 is not with Mukesh Malhotra. However, the contest is full of dilemma and Congress has not yet decided its candidate, due to which the political fog still remains because after the candidate is declared, the political equations become somewhat clear immediately. But one thing is clear as the writing on the wall that this election is not being fought by Ramniwas Rawat but by Narendra Singh Tomar, who brought him to BJP and is considered Chanakya. The way he made his candidates win in the almost lost seats of Gwalior and Morena in the Lok Sabha, everyone accepts his strength. The question is, will he not be able to save Ramniwas? The way he started many development works by making Chief Minister Yadav visit the area continuously, it is silently telling the whole story without saying. Anyway, this election is being held under the leadership of Chief Minister Mohan Yadav, so it is obvious that he will leave no stone unturned to win. The special thing is that Vijaypur assembly has a deep connection with the forest which runs the life here. The people of the area have most of their work with the forest department. Now in these circumstances how will they be able to turn their back on the cabinet minister of forest department Ramniwas? But after all this, elections are elections, now the result will be decided by which button the voter presses on the machine on 13th November, whom he chooses, whom he rejects.

(The author is a senior journalist and political analyst)